ABI forecasts open loop EMV transit ticketing payment cards to top 136m by 2025

The number of open-loop EMV contactless cards used to make transit ticketing payments worldwide will increase from 24.8m currently to 136.9m by 2025, according to an ABI Research forecast.

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“With contactless payment acceptance and transactions in all markets experiencing a sharp upturn during Covid-19, approximately 150 large cities are looking to adopt EMV as another contactless payment method, which will sit alongside existing proprietary solutions, including cities in Ireland, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), India and Russia,” ABI says.

“The United States will experience a significant increase in the number of open loop EMV cards in ticketing use, increasing from 1m in 2020 to 13m in 2025.

“Latin America will see an increase in the number of open loop EMV cards in transit use from 3.7m in 2020 to 23m in 2025.

“The use of payment cards in transit has long been popular in Europe and is forecast to increase from 16m cards in 2020 to a forecasted 71m in 2025.”

Closed loop cards

ABI also forecasts an increase in the use of closed loop EMV cards for transit ticketing, with closed loop EMV shipments in Europe increasing from 0.2m in 2022 to 2.5m in 2025.

“Stockholm will see closed loop EMV shipments reach 0.3m in 2025 after kicking off in 2022. Similarly, at the end of its contract with Cubic in 2025, London is expected to adopt a closed loop EMV solution, achieving 0.6m closed loop EMV shipments in the first year of inception,” the company predicts.

“When considering which infrastructure is currently in place, already having a contactless-based setup enables the introduction of new ticketing form factors to a transit authority’s ecosystem,” ABI analyst Sam Gazeley adds.

“While this was once perceived as a potential hazard to the traditional smart card market, it is now largely considered complementary and addresses a different sub-commuter market: infrequent travellers and tourists.

“The logical roadmap for TAs looking to the future of their systems will see open loop acceptance as a bridging mechanism toward the introduction of closed loop EMV cards, adding another layer of payment choice for commuters, complementing and working alongside existing ticketing systems.”

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