Juniper forecasts rapid growth in mobile-first digital government IDs

Digital ID platforms to be used by 5bn people in 2024, as emerging economies go mobile-first — Juniper Research — “The number of people using government-issued digital identity credentials will grow by over 150% from an expected 1.7bn in 2019 to over 5bn in 2024… Mobile ID schemes take the lead over digital identity cards, with a third more users relying on apps compared to cards in the next five years.”


What's New in Payments

Digital wallets to be used by half the world’s population by 2024

Half the world’s population to use digital wallets by 2024 — Juniper Research — “A new study from Juniper Research has found that the number of people using digital wallets will increase from 2.3bn this year to nearly 4bn, or 50% of the world’s population, by 2024. This in turn will push wallet transaction values up by more than 80% to more than $9tn per annum.”


What's New in Payments

Four in ten POS terminals now accept contactless payments

Have contactless cards become the tool of choice for low-value payments? — RBR — “At the end of 2017, there were 5.3bn contactless cards in circulation worldwide — this represents 35% of all cards, a share that RBR forecasts will increase to 57% by 2023… The number of eftpos terminals worldwide which allow contactless payments rose by 41% in 2017 to reach 40.9m.”



What's New in Payments

Contactless payments to drive growth in global card market

Global card expenditure to reach $45tn by 2023 on back of contactless payments — RBR — “RBR forecasts global card expenditure will grow at an average of 10% per year between 2017 and 2023 to reach US$45.2tn. The average value of a payment, however, will fall from $67 to $62 over the same period as the influence of contactless cards grows — the latter are typically used for the lowest-value payments, and particularly those which would previously have been made with cash.”


What's New in Payments

Two in three US banks plan to issue contactless cards ‘within the next few years’

Here’s why your next credit card will probably be contactless — Auriemma Consulting Group — “Today, just 22% of credit card companies offer contactless cards in the US market, mostly in select portfolios. But 67% of card issuers plan to introduce contactless cards within the next few years, according to new data from Auriemma Consulting Group.”



What's New in Payments

Chinese mobile payment users set to double by 2023

Mobile payments market in China is expected to witness three-fold growth with doubling of active mobile payment users by 2023 — Frost & Sullivan — “The market of mobile payments services in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% from 2017 to 2023, growing three-fold from US$29.93 trillion to US$96.73 trillion. The total number of active mobile payment customers is expected to reach 956 million by 2023 from 562 million in 2017 which will attract additional investments from mobile payments market participants.”





What's New in Payments

Forecast: One in two payment cards shipped in 2018 will be contactless

Contactless payment cards forecast to account for over 50% of all cards delivered globally in 2018 — ABI Research — “Contactless payment card issuance is set to hit 1.5bn units in 2018, accounting for over 50% of all payment card shipments delivered globally… Breaking the 50% barrier marks a significant milestone in contactless card migration, where market momentum is expected to continue due to next-generation migration opportunities, most notably in the US, India, South East Asia, and Latin America. These opportunities are helping to push contactless card issuance volumes toward 2.3bn annually by 2022.”



What's New in Payments

Shoppers forecast to spend $45bn a year using self-checkout in stores

‘Just Walk Out’ shopping and other smart checkout tech to reach over $45bn transactions by 2023, as retailers strive to eliminate lines — Juniper Research — “Retail spend at frictionless payment stores like Amazon Go will grow from an estimated US$253m in 2018 to over US$45bn by 2023. Juniper expects most of these transactions to be in convenience and general stores, with an average transaction value around US$30 per visit… Self-scanning apps, an alternative to ‘Just Walk Out’ technologies, will be used by over 32 million shoppers by 2023.”


What's New in Payments

Mobile contactless payment volumes to rise by 30% a year to 2022

451 Research’s Global Unified Commerce Forecast uncovers dramatic shifts in consumer spending patterns — 451 Research — “Mobile contactless payments will surpass $1 trillion globally in 2022. Sales executed via mobile contactless payment methods such as Apple Pay and Google Pay are growing at an impressive 30.7% CAGR through 2022. However, they will account for just 1.4% of global brick and mortar retail sales this year and reach only 3.8% by 2022.”


Survey: Merchants are winning the US mobile wallet adoption battle

Merchants winning the battle for mobile wallet supremacy — Javelin Strategy & Research — “In the rush to market, the main wallet value proposition, paying at the POS, wasn’t particularly compelling. In reality, loyalty and rewards will drive adoption, something merchants are doing particularly well,” said Krista Tedder, director of payments at Javelin Strategy & Research.”


What's New in Payments

OEM Pays forecast to dominate mobile contactless payments market for next five years

Contactless payments to represent 1 in 3 in-store transactions globally by 2020 — Juniper Research — “Juniper forecasts that OEM Pay wallets will enable over $300 billion in transactions by 2020, representing 15% of the total contactless in-store transactions… OEM Pay wallet users will reach 450 million by 2020, with Apple accounting for one in two OEM Pay users globally… ‘We believe that growth over the next five years will continue to be dominated by offerings from the major OEM players.'”


NFC World

Eight in ten POS terminals to support NFC payments by 2022

Shipments of NFC-ready POS terminals reached 24.7m in 2017 — Berg Insight — “The attach rate for NFC was highest in EU28+2 and North America, where 90% and 88% respectively of the POS terminals shipped [in 2017] featured NFC. NFC was also a very popular feature in many other major markets worldwide, including Brazil, Turkey and China… More than 78% of the world’s POS terminals will be NFC-ready in 2022, up from 50% in 2017.”


Feed for stories about Forecast.